2025 Holiday Retail Forecast: Trends & Tips for A Successful Season

The days are getting shorter, Pumpkin Spice Lattes are back, and football season is in full swing. All signs point to the holiday season approaching fast.

If you’re a retailer or marketer, this year’s holiday retail forecast is a mixed bag of cautious optimism. So how do you make the most of your marketing budget?

Below we’re unwrapping 2025’s holiday retail forecast and marketing strategies that will help you connect with today’s consumers and make the most of the season.

Summary

The 2025 holiday season is certainly going to be a challenging one for retailers. With slower growth and shifting behaviors, it will be critical to adapt quickly and be strategic with marketing dollars. Holiday shopping timelines are starting earlier than ever, so brands must be ready to engage consumers well before Black Friday. Focusing on mobile, embracing social commerce, and using AI to personalize every interaction will help increase your relevance for a successful holiday season.

2025 Holiday Retail Forecast

According to EMARKETER’s 2025 Holiday Outlook, this year’s holiday season is forecasted to be the slowest holiday growth since 2009.

Economic pressures like tariffs and inflation are making consumers more cautious, especially those in lower-income brackets. But there’s a silver lining: upper-income households are still spending, and ecommerce is hitting major milestones.

NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz says that “While we do expect slower growth, consumer fundamentals remain intact, supported by low unemployment, slower but steady income growth, and solid household finances. Consumer spending is not unraveling.”

Kleinhenz added that even though consumer confidence is declining, due largely to lingering inflation and consumers’ anxiety over tariffs, that doesn’t mean there will be an immediate drop in consumer spending.

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), total U.S. retail sales are projected to grow 2.7–3.7% in 2025, reaching up to $5.48 trillion.

Mobile Shopping Dominates 2025 Holidays

Smartphones now drive the majority of holiday purchases. In 2024, Adobe Analytics reported that 54.5% of ecommerce sales came from mobile and it’s expected to climb in 2025.

Graph of Holiday retail has entered its mcommerce-dominant era

From browsing to price-checking to checkout, smartphones have surpassed desktops and are central to both the in-store and online consumer journey.

Why Mobile Matters:

Shoppers use mobile to compare prices in-store, save items for later, and discover deals.
Mobile optimization is critical for conversions. Think fast load times, digital wallets, and seamless UX.
Retailers are integrating AI tools into mobile apps to offer personalized recommendations.

Tip: Make sure your retail site is mobile-first, not just mobile-friendly. Every touchpoint should be optimized for thumb-scrolling and one-click purchases.

Retail Category Forecast

Every major category is expected to see slower growth compared to 2024, with some even dipping into negative territory. Auto and parts, for example, are projected to decline by 2.3%, a sharp drop from last year’s 4.3% growth. Food and beverage will still grow, but at a reduced pace of 2.4%, down from 6.3%. Categories like home improvement, apparel, and electronics are all facing contractions, reflecting cautious consumer behavior amid economic pressures.

Despite these headwinds, retailers can still find opportunity by leaning into categories with resilient demand and adjusting their strategies to meet shifting consumer priorities.

Table of Every retail category will experience slower growth this year

The New Holiday Shopping Calendar

Holiday shopping timelines are shifting fast, driven by economic uncertainty and retailer strategy.

What Does the 2025 Shopper Timeline Look Like:

Early Shopping: Economic uncertainty is pushing consumers to start earlier—some started holiday shopping as early as July .
October Promotions: Major retailers like Amazon and Walmart are launching sales in late September and October. Amazon’s Big Prime Day Deals has driven retailers such as Best Buy, Costco, Target, Walmart to launch their own October events that, in some cases, coincide with Prime Big Deal Days.
Cyber 5 (Thanksgiving Day-Cyber Monday): Still relevant, but growth is slowing across categories.

Bar chart of more holiday shoppers started early this year

Tip: Front-load your retail campaigns in October, then reengage around Thanksgiving. Use urgency and personalization to drive action. While early shopping is on the rise, November and December still account for roughly 75% of Q4 online holiday sale s, so keep your campaigns strong through year-end.

AI, TikTok, and Social Commerce Are Reshaping Retail

Social ecomm and AI are reshaping the holiday shopping experience, making shopping faster, smarter, and more personalized from discovery to checkout.

Emerging Trends:

TikTok Shop makes discovery-to-purchase seamless.
Consumers are using ChatGPT for gift ideas, product comparisons, and shopping assistance.
Retailers are embedding AI into apps to offer smart recommendations and reengagement prompts.

Gen Z is leading the charge with these trends. According to Sprout Social, 82% of Gen Z are on TikTok and 48% of Gen Z consumers plan to make more purchases through social media in 2025 compared to 2024.

Other demographics are catching on, Millennials are now a close second when it comes to purchasing holiday gifts through social media.

Bar char of Gen Z is twice as likely as average to buy gifts on social

Tip: Retailers should embrace AI-powered shopping by optimizing for TikTok Shop, ChatGPT discovery, and smart app features. Seamless, intelligent experiences are now the expectation, not the exception.

Where Retailers Should Focus Marketing Budgets

1. Mobile-First Campaigns

Optimize every touchpoint for mobile.
Use SMS and push notifications for timely promotions.
Highlight digital payment options.

2. Social Commerce

Offer exclusive promo codes through social channels.
Use TikTok and Instagram for product demos and live shopping.

3. Value-Driven Messaging

Reframe affordability as indulgence.
Expand offerings to include budget-friendly bundles.
Communicate value clearly and creatively.

4. Gen Z Engagement

Use humor, trends, and authenticity.
Create content that’s shareable and searchable.
Optimize for discovery on TikTok and AI platforms.

Ready to make your budget work harder during the holiday season?

At Brandience, we help retailers cut through the noise with smart channel choices, compelling creative, and strategies that drive real results. Let’s build a plan that delivers this season. Connect with us today.

FAQ: Quick Answers for Holiday Retail Marketing

Q: Should I still invest in Black Friday?

A: Yes, but don’t rely on it. Spread promotions throughout October and November to catch early shoppers.

Q: How will inflation affect holiday shopping in 2025?

A: NRF projects inflation (PCE) will hover around 2.5% this year. While that, along with tariffs, is weighing on consumer sentiment, household finances remain stable. Retailers should expect cautious but steady spending with stronger growth in ecommerce than brick-and-mortar.

Q: Is mobile really that important?

A: Absolutely. According to EMARKETER, mobile now drives over 50% (56.5%) of ecommerce sales and influences in-store decisions.

Q: How does my retail brand stand out in a crowded market during the holidays?

A: To stand out to consumers during the holiday season, focus on relevance, value, and seamless experiences. Use AI and personalization to reengage shoppers who showed intent but didn’t convert.